上星期四（五月二十二日）我與朋友約在美僑俱樂部吃晚飯，美僑俱樂部位於圓山飯店旁的北安路上，我沒去過，但那條路我倒是很熟，因為以前住內湖，每天上下班都要經過。
從我住處到美僑俱樂部必須走新生高架橋，記得以前新生高架橋每到下班時間都堵得很嚴重，往大直方向還好，往士林更是寸步難行。不過堵車是八、九年前的事了。我已經多年未曾在下班時間走新生高架。
憑著以前的記憶，抓了預計時間提早出門。結果，當車子上了新生高架時，我著實嚇了一跳。空蕩蕩的，放眼望去只有我一部車，一直要開到下坡往北安路方向時才稍稍看到幾輛車子。這可是星期四的下午六點半呢！當然，我早到了二十分鐘。
曾幾何時，台北真的變了。
還有，今天晚餐我依例要到住家附近的泰式餐廳吃飯，沒想到關了。看到老闆正在打包，還有他那可愛的兒子在一旁玩耍。這家叫大理雲泰風味餐廳，東西不錯，價格也很實惠。我頗懷念的。我在當餐廳紛紛關門時一文曾經提過麗江，麗江收了之後原址換老闆，改成大理。無奈還是撐不下去。
我滿懷念的。
就在我感觸良多，為什麼台北市的小型餐廳紛紛關門時，星期日在板橋驚見好幾家餐廳都客滿！
其原因當然不是住台北市的人都跑去板橋吃飯。但我總覺得，台北市的房價如果再繼續漲下去的話，小店家終會無立足之地。台北市的店面可能要被高檔業者、連鎖店、和「吉屋出租」所取代。
還有，不知道為什麼，這一兩年來我住家附近晚上的外食人口實在是少得可怕，大家都改去哪裡吃晚餐呢？
Monday, May 26, 2008
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Just for Fun
It just came upon my mind this funny sentence:
Two to the two equals two pluses two, two times two, or two by two, which too, will not be two.
Two to the two equals two pluses two, two times two, or two by two, which too, will not be two.
Friday, May 09, 2008
13 Jours En France
這是一首多年前我喜歡彈的吉他曲，原曲是1968年冬季奧運記錄片的主題曲。以前彈吉他時只知旋律優美迷人而不知其義。如今透過網路，不僅法文歌詞找到了，連翻譯都有了。更棒的是還可以看到記錄片。
這幾天隨手彈起此曲，突然覺得，或許可以找到相關資料，特記之。
詞曲原文和翻譯均取自百度知道歌譜則引自Varios。
13 JOURS EN FRANCE
Voilà pendant treize jours
En France on a fait le tour
Du desordre et des passions,
De la disproportion
De notre temps qui court
Voilà pendant treize jours
La France a fait son discours
Sans oublier qu'en chansons
Quelles que soientles raisons
Celàfinit toujours.
Un peu comme les lampions
Survivant aux réveillons
Peu à peu toutes passions s'éteignent
Comme les rues s'ennuyaient
Quandle Quatorze Juillet
Remballait ses bals et ses rengaines
Voilà qu'aprés troize jours
En France a repris el cours
D'un folklore quotidien
Qu'an fondl'on aime bien
Qui vient aujour le jour
Pourtant pendant treize jours
En France on a fait l'amour
Sans oublier un instant
Que pendent tout ce temps
Les jeux suivraientleur cours ...
在法國的十三天
在法國的這十三天
我們經歷了所有的
混亂和激情
以及我們這個年代的
比例失調
在這十三天裏
法國說了些話
同時不會忘記
不管由於什麼原因
結局總會令人皆大歡喜
就像節日的彩燈
聖誕夜後仍在發光
熱情的火焰會慢慢熄滅
就像每年的七月十四日
總會對舞會和老歌進行重新包裝
連街道都感到厭倦
這十三天后
法國又恢復正常
如一首耳熟能詳的民歌
日復一日
人們打心眼裏喜歡
儘管在法國的這十三天
我們也曾做愛
但一刻也不會忘記
在此期間
運動會照常進行
Thursday, May 01, 2008
Zugzwang and Pascal's Wager
Zugzwang, a technical term in chess, is originated from German meaning compulsion to move. Whoever is to move is put at a disadvantage. In the playing of chess, Black and White move in sequence without any disruption. No one can abandon a move. So, there may be conditions that it is your turn to move, and all your possible moves will make you worse, such as a Knight is to be killed or a piece is to block in your King's way and hence make it more vulnerable.
That reminds me of Pascal' wager. Pascal, the great French mathematician, when asked if he believes that there is a God, he did not go find the odds of God's existence, but to consider the consequence of his possible guesses. If he said that there is no God, and in the end, God does exist, then he would have serious troubles. If he said that there is a God, and it turns out that there is no God at all, then he has nothing to lose. Thus he could safely say that God does exist.
Zugzwang and Pascal's wager are two different concepts with similar mindset which I think very important in investment. Whenever I make a investment, I don't bother finding out the possibilities of every outcomes -- I can never get a precise answer. Instead, I try to make sure every possible outcomes are all good to me, or at least no harm to me.
Sometimes, I have to ponder whether to sell a certain stock. But all I do is making sure that, to sell or not to sell, all will be in my benefits. In other words, to sell it, I cash in the profits, while not to sell, I have a good long term stock in hand.
I will never put myself in Zugzwang.
The institutional investors seem always in Zugzwang. For example, when a fund in Taiwan is set up, it has to buy stocks within 3 months so that more than 70% of its portfolio has been built up. Another Zugzwang condition is so-called the forced cut loss. Every company has a rule to cut loss. When triggered, the traders are to clear all that particular stock out without any concerns. They call it disciplines, but I 'd like to call it stupid if you are a value investor. However, if you are a technical investor, please kindly forget and forgive my words.
About a month ago, I was invited to a lady's club to give a lecture. I told them that if only they can understand and apply the Pascal's wager, they would be better off for that very reason.
I hope they take my words for it.
That reminds me of Pascal' wager. Pascal, the great French mathematician, when asked if he believes that there is a God, he did not go find the odds of God's existence, but to consider the consequence of his possible guesses. If he said that there is no God, and in the end, God does exist, then he would have serious troubles. If he said that there is a God, and it turns out that there is no God at all, then he has nothing to lose. Thus he could safely say that God does exist.
Zugzwang and Pascal's wager are two different concepts with similar mindset which I think very important in investment. Whenever I make a investment, I don't bother finding out the possibilities of every outcomes -- I can never get a precise answer. Instead, I try to make sure every possible outcomes are all good to me, or at least no harm to me.
Sometimes, I have to ponder whether to sell a certain stock. But all I do is making sure that, to sell or not to sell, all will be in my benefits. In other words, to sell it, I cash in the profits, while not to sell, I have a good long term stock in hand.
I will never put myself in Zugzwang.
The institutional investors seem always in Zugzwang. For example, when a fund in Taiwan is set up, it has to buy stocks within 3 months so that more than 70% of its portfolio has been built up. Another Zugzwang condition is so-called the forced cut loss. Every company has a rule to cut loss. When triggered, the traders are to clear all that particular stock out without any concerns. They call it disciplines, but I 'd like to call it stupid if you are a value investor. However, if you are a technical investor, please kindly forget and forgive my words.
About a month ago, I was invited to a lady's club to give a lecture. I told them that if only they can understand and apply the Pascal's wager, they would be better off for that very reason.
I hope they take my words for it.
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