Just for Fun

It just came upon my mind this funny sentence:
Two to the two equals two pluses two, two times two, or two by two, which too, will not be two.

13 Jours En France

這是一首多年前我喜歡彈的吉他曲，原曲是1968年冬季奧運記錄片的主題曲。以前彈吉他時只知旋律優美迷人而不知其義。如今透過網路，不僅法文歌詞找到了，連翻譯都有了。更棒的是還可以看到記錄片。

這幾天隨手彈起此曲，突然覺得，或許可以找到相關資料，特記之。

詞曲原文和翻譯均取自百度知道歌譜則引自Varios。

13 JOURS EN FRANCE

Voilà pendant treize jours
En France on a fait le tour
Du desordre et des passions,
De la disproportion
De notre temps qui court
Voilà pendant treize jours
La France a fait son discours
Sans oublier qu'en chansons
Quelles que soientles raisons
Celàfinit toujours.

Un peu comme les lampions
Survivant aux réveillons
Peu à peu toutes passions s'éteignent
Comme les rues s'ennuyaient
Quandle Quatorze Juillet
Remballait ses bals et ses rengaines
Voilà qu'aprés troize jours
En France a repris el cours
D'un folklore quotidien
Qu'an fondl'on aime bien
Qui vient aujour le jour
Pourtant pendant treize jours
En France on a fait l'amour
Sans oublier un instant
Que pendent tout ce temps
Les jeux suivraientleur cours ...

在法國的十三天

在法國的這十三天
我們經歷了所有的
混亂和激情
以及我們這個年代的
比例失調
在這十三天裏
法國說了些話
同時不會忘記
不管由於什麼原因
結局總會令人皆大歡喜

就像節日的彩燈
聖誕夜後仍在發光
熱情的火焰會慢慢熄滅
就像每年的七月十四日
總會對舞會和老歌進行重新包裝
連街道都感到厭倦
這十三天后
法國又恢復正常
如一首耳熟能詳的民歌
日復一日
人們打心眼裏喜歡
儘管在法國的這十三天
我們也曾做愛
但一刻也不會忘記
在此期間
運動會照常進行

Zugzwang and Pascal's Wager

Zugzwang, a technical term in chess, is originated from German meaning compulsion to move. Whoever is to move is put at a disadvantage. In the playing of chess, Black and White move in sequence without any disruption. No one can abandon a move. So, there may be conditions that it is your turn to move, and all your possible moves will make you worse, such as a Knight is to be killed or a piece is to block in your King's way and hence make it more vulnerable.

That reminds me of Pascal' wager. Pascal, the great French mathematician, when asked if he believes that there is a God, he did not go find the odds of God's existence, but to consider the consequence of his possible guesses. If he said that there is no God, and in the end, God does exist, then he would have serious troubles. If he said that there is a God, and it turns out that there is no God at all, then he has nothing to lose. Thus he could safely say that God does exist.

Zugzwang and Pascal's wager are two different concepts with similar mindset which I think very important in investment. Whenever I make a investment, I don't bother finding out the possibilities of every outcomes -- I can never get a precise answer. Instead, I try to make sure every possible outcomes are all good to me, or at least no harm to me.

Sometimes, I have to ponder whether to sell a certain stock. But all I do is making sure that, to sell or not to sell, all will be in my benefits. In other words, to sell it, I cash in the profits, while not to sell, I have a good long term stock in hand.

I will never put myself in Zugzwang.

The institutional investors seem always in Zugzwang. For example, when a fund in Taiwan is set up, it has to buy stocks within 3 months so that more than 70% of its portfolio has been built up. Another Zugzwang condition is so-called the forced cut loss. Every company has a rule to cut loss. When triggered, the traders are to clear all that particular stock out without any concerns. They call it disciplines, but I 'd like to call it stupid if you are a value investor. However, if you are a technical investor, please kindly forget and forgive my words.

About a month ago, I was invited to a lady's club to give a lecture. I told them that if only they can understand and apply the Pascal's wager, they would be better off for that very reason.

I hope they take my words for it.

A Trip to Chitou

I took my family to Chitou(溪頭) for a trip last weekend. Chitou, meaning "creek head" in Chinese, is a beautiful plantation forest in central Taiwan, not very far from a famous tea town, Luku(鹿谷), or the deer valley. I've been to Chitou a couple of times, and I like it so much that I even spent a few days of my honeymoon over there. I recall that I purchased an orchid, Cym. ensifolium on that particular trip. It is still in my garden, and it spikes every year.

Well, I must say that Chitou has a lot of changes since some twenty years ago when I first went there. But the changes are delightful. As I can see, my daughter loves it much the same way I loved it twenty years ago.

The trees are tall, green, and beautiful, though wild orchids are not as much as they were. But I still found some, to my surprise.

Nowadays, it is very easy to go to Chitou from Taipei. It takes only three hours or so by car. I left Taipei 8:30 in the morning and got there before noon. That's something impossible before. I shall go there every so often.

Cym. dayanum

Bulbophyllum pectinatum

Liparis elliptica

Phaius tankervilleae

Beautiful Phalaenopsis

I like Phalaenopsis. With butterfly-like flowers hanging sweetly on the spikes, the Phalaenopsis always exuberates a sense of joy. I grow a lot of Phalaenopsis. Every time they spike, I can not help but take a lot of pictures for them and for other orchids.

These flowers are not mine, of course.

Please enjoy.









I also have some pictures of other orchids.

四季蘭無菌播種後續３

播種至今九個月左右。龍根發展成龍根群。我猜測龍根之間有共生關係存在。

在大自然狀況下，龍根與蘭菌形共生關係，但偶爾在野外會發現一大族的龍根，可能剛好是種莢同一批種子聚在一起掉落土壤中一起長出來的。

我試管裡這批就是一團種子長出來的，而且明顯長得比「落單」的種子快。快了數倍之多。而且，很神奇，有的種子根本就沒碰觸到培養基，竟可以快速發芽成長？

我猜測龍根之間會行養分和荷爾蒙之交換。換言之，當要發葉芽時，會一起發出來。

那麼，一群試管中的龍根，如果不用傳統的BA誘導，是否可以放進一株正在長芽中的龍根，然後整瓶發芽？

我還有其他猜測，但先寫到這裡，繼續觀察再說吧。

因為也有可能是我看錯了，根本是同一條龍根（雖然不太可能）。

四季蘭無菌播種ＤＩＹ

四季蘭無菌播種後續１

四季蘭無菌播種後續２－－長龍根

四季蘭無菌播種後續３

四季蘭無菌播種後續４

Mais où sont les neiges d'antan!

Mais où sont les neiges d'antan?

Where are the snows of yesteryear?

Ballade des Dames du Temps Jadis

Catching a Falling Knife

It is a common sense in the Wall Street that never catch a falling knife. However, I have just caught one. The stock I bought is a health equipment company that has just fallen out of favor: The Johnson Health Technology (喬山). Its share price falls form 290 to currently 57, because of earning surprise. The company had encountered a net lost last Q2.

I have no doubt that it was a good company, and I hope it still is. It is not my purpose to write all its merits here, but the company has an international brand name, and a strong earning record. People consider the U.S. recession had made it difficult to sustain a good earning level. Yes, due to the sub-prime problem.

The P/E ratio now is about 19 and EPS is 3. Why don't I wait until its EPS drops below 15? Or wait until P/B ratio is less than 1.5? Isn't it risky to buy at a 19 P/E?

That's right, I shall wait until the price goes down to a comfortable level. I have made a mistake to risk on this price simply because I think it has already dropped quite a lot. The price may go down further until its earning recovery. Until then, I shall wait. Somehow, I have taken a unnecessary risk.

I think over this problem again and again these days. And I get the point finally. Fortunately, I have bought the stock with only one third of my target amount. The other two third shall wait strictly until a proper price comes out.

Setting Up a Convertible Bond Trading Worksheet with Free Data Source

I have not posted anything for quite a while because I was working on a book that I like it very much. I have finished it finally! And I also had a lecture on last Friday about Greenspan's book, The age of Turbulence. That was a very special book club, in which, all members are women. I have a lot to say about the lecture, but for now, I am going to talk about Convertible Bonds, CB.

A couple of years ago, when people (in Taiwan) did not know very well about CB, I traded CB quite a lot, and made some money. The only reason that I made money is, people don't know anything about CB, and think it was a low liquidity, exotic instrument. So its price was underestimated, until it was converted to common shares or it was put.

Low liquidity is not a serious problem, but lack of information was, and still is. People don't know where to get the required information, and even if they know, they are not able to manipulate it.

I built a CB system several years ago in the company. But now, I am out on my own, so I don't have Reuters or Bloomberg, and I don't have a team to maintain the database either.

Fortunately, a lot of firms have found the merits of CB and joined the market. Although they have taken all the fruit in the lower branches, they somehow provide happy free data.

Yesterday, started from these free data, I set up a free CB worksheet. It is easy to maintain, and no pains. The spread sheet is dirty and quick, so it is not fancy at all, but you have almost every thing. By the way, it is real time.

The only thing I did is to take a free CB list form the securities house, and build a excel spreadsheet with DDE functions. That’s all.

A Quote from Avatamsaka Sutra

Avatamsaka Sutra (華嚴經), a Buddhist Sutra also known as The Flower Garland Sutra, is not only a good book to understand Buddha, but also a book providing profound wisdoms about views, which is a very important concept in investment.

I was helping my wife to print out my mother in law's lecture for a Buddhist meeting when I found something really astonishing in the Avatamsaka Sutra. I shall translate it from Chinese. Please note that my translation may not correct, but close. I will do it in English as well as Chinese, so that some of you can directly read it in Chinese.

無見即是見，能見一切法。於法若有見，此則無所見。

No-view is precisely a kind of view, those who have no view can witness every law (of the Buddha).
Should there be a view to the (Buddhist) law, that must be no-view.
(or, "If you have a view to the [Buddhist] law, then you can witness nothing." Sorry, I am not very sure for this.)

有見則為垢，此則未為見。遠離於諸見，如是乃見佛。

Those who have views are polluted, thus can witness nothing. Stay away from lay views, thus can witness the Buddha.

Well, next time you see someone eloquently talking about what's going on the market, please kindly remind yourself this little quote from Avatamsaka Sutra.

4images 1.7.1 and MySQL 5.0.x

Ever since my Chinese Painting Gallery moved to a new host, the site has been off for a serious database problem. My friend Ted told me that it was because 4images 1.7.1 is not compatible with MySQL 5.0.x.

Please see 4images forum for a solution.

I have to thank my friend Ted for providing this invaluable information.

How to Be Protected from the Young

People at about my age, which is forty something, may be wondering: why is that, when we were young, the old man had the ball; and when we are getting old (and obsolete), the ball is in the young man's hand. Well, that may be just my personal feeling, but I think to some extent it is true that the young is invading into our territory.

This morning, I read the headline on the newspaper: "Two Teenagers Won the Science Fair with Only 200NT". They are just junior high school girls. Their work, "A New Method to Measure Surface Tension: An Re-Application of the Connected Pipe Theory", won the first prize of the 2008 International Science Fair in Taiwan.

Every now and then we have this kind of news circulating around, and we take it for granted that young man are taking the lead in the world of science. We, the middle-ager, mostly engaged in business or social matters, do not have to worry, so we tell ourselves. But is it that safe to keep ourselves focusing on things other than natural science? I doubt.

My friend Su is a radio program moderator, and the program is about books. She invited me to her program and talk about Greenspan's book, The Age of Turbulence with another guest- to my surprise, her student. He is just an elementary school boy.

Oh, no. If a schoolboy can talk about economics on the air, then the young are not just invading in the fields of natural science. Fortunately, I found that boy can not understand the book, and he could only squeeze words out with difficulty. I felt relieved as well as compassionate.

But I still think that the middle aged can not protect themselves from the young with knowledge. In the era of Internet, information and knowledge is never an advantage of the aged. We can only at best keep up with the young. Never think about to leading or teaching them. Some of them can even be erudite.

So, what moat do we have? What 's so important and the young are lack of? Experience? May be. But mind you, the only thing that we can learn form experience is, as the famous history saying goes, we never learn from experience.

Money? May be. But that is not a real moat. The young are getting rich ever faster. They may be richer than you already.

Social connections? May be. But the young have their own social networks, and you have yours. You have already seen many companies run buy 'kids', and they run the companies pretty well, if not better than you did.

OK, I propose one. Credits. I mean not only the bank credits, but all kinds of credits, such as your work, papers, medals, honors, some good things, and most importantly, the prizes you've won.

In the business world, we tend to judge a person by historical records. And this is a very important vetting process. We don't have to evaluate a person in every aspects, we only count on his records. And a series of good records or credits is just something that the young can never acquired when young. Some may think that the credits now can be built up much faster than before, but I doubt.

Most of the Credits are built up through competitions. And it takes time to compete. That is perhaps something the old-timers already done.

So, next time when you see some young stars in your company about to compete you out of your position, don't try to start learning computers, take trainings, or even go to schools. It's too late and useless. Besides, it is not easy. Never try fighting your enemies in their wars.

You try to be the sales of the year, to take part in an important task force, to lead a challenging project, and so on. And DON'T FOCUS ON ROUTINE WORKS ONLY. Leave them to the young. You'd better make mistakes instead of making no noise.

It’s Different to Be Different

About two thousand years ago, Suma Chien(司馬遷) in his famous book, The Historical Records(史記), described Tao Ju Gong(陶朱公),the richest man in ancient China, as follows. “Sell the expensive in a way as if it were dirt, buy the cheep in a way as if it were pearls.” One would consider that is a matter of price. But price is just a phenomenon and every person has his own view, therefore, it might not be the real point. I think it is about “being different”.

If everyone, including your mother in law, thinks that something is of no value, then you just buy it as if it were invaluable. If everyone thinks that something is very valuable, then you just sell it as if it were of no value. All you have to do is being different to all the others. Some may say that this is a kind of contrarians. But it is not that simple. Being different is never that simple.

Consider a teenager who wants to be different. He does not want to be similar to his parents, brothers, sisters, and even classmates. He wants to be different in clothing, hairstyle, talking, and even foods to the extent that he manages to be as different as he can and finally turns to the fads for help. As a result, in one way or another, those teenagers that turn to fads all become similar. They are so similar that they may even look like their parents twenty years ago. Their difference is just of no difference.

If you want to be really different, you just can’t make it by being against everything mechanically. The difference has to be originated from the bottom of your heart.

I remember that thirty years ago, when I was in high school, there was a naïve painter, Hong Tung(洪通, 1920-1987). To everyone’s surprise, he suddenly became famous. Hong had never learned painting. Actually, he had never gone to any schools. He was an illiterate, and lived in a very poor and remote village in southern Taiwan. He made a living by temporary jobs.

One day, when he was about fifty years old, he suddenly found that he had a passion in painting and started painting. The villagers looked down on him and took him as a lunatic, for he made no money and could not make a living except relying on his wife. He was considered as garbage, but he’d never mind.

Amazingly, it only took several years for him to become a hot shot in Taiwan. How he succeeded will be skipped here. You only have to know that somehow he became the headlines. A lot of tourists went to that remote village just to see him. I confess here, I did, too. Taipei elites had organized an art exhibition for Hong in the U.S. Information Agency(美新處) in 1976. Everybody in Taiwan was crazy for him, even the President Chiang Ching-kuo.

But he never sold his paintings. Some had offered a price so high that the villagers can never imagine. He just refused to sell any of his work. Recall the phrase quoted from The Historical Records: ” Sell the expensive in a way as if it were dirt.” Quite a lot of people would advise him to sell at least some. Please also note that he was still very poor at that time. I think, in this case, it is a conventional wisdom to sell.

But Hong was different, again. He insisted. None was sold.

Years after, he had passed away. But people still consider him a great painter. Nowadays, a lot of so called naïve painters imitate his style of painting. Every year, children in his hometown would paint a lot of Hong’s style painting to memorize him.

One may say aftermath that had he sold his painting then, he would already be out of our consciousness, because we might take him as an ordinary painter.

He was so different to be different.

The Flower of Chikushi

The Flower of Chikushi(筑紫之華) is a variety of Cymbidium sinense(報歲蘭). The location and time it was found are still unknown today. But one thing can be sure, it was not from Chikushi.

There are white lines called "art"(藝) on its leaves. The "arts" has various patterns. Usually, the pattern of this variety is called "nakahu"(中斑). That means the white or yellow lines are located in the inner part of the leaves, while the outer part of the leaves, especially the tip of the leave is green.


The Flower of Chikushi has a strange property. If a young shoot starts growing in spring time, its leaves will all be ordinary green, no white lines on those leaves. But if the young shoots start growing in autumn, then, it will have splendid and flashy leaves. People consider its "art" unstable and therefore The Flower of Chikushi is inexpensive.

But I think this property is quite interesting. The combination of green shoots and "art" shoots makes them easier to grow and let the whole plant look more beautiful. Further more, sometimes, there are also "arts" on its flowers, and the pattern is "nakahu" as well. But not every flower of it has "arts". Sometimes, you can see different types of flower on a scape.


Twenty years ago, people think that these "arts" can not be reproduced by pollination . Nowadays, some people have shown that if the female parent has "art", then there may be some chances to have "art" offspring.

We still don't know the exact mechanism. But it is interesting, and I have tried to make one pollinated. So, let's see what's going to happen several years later, no kidding.

The last picture shows the flowers of an ordinary Cym. sinense.

AM 729

I seldom listen to the AM radios. Today, I tune the radio back and forth without any specific program to listen. It happened that I found AM 729, the Shih Hsin Radio Station(世新電台).It was Deutsche Welle(德國之音) on the air. For me, the Deutsche Welle is not the same to the BBC world service, DW is in more depth with no-big-deal kind of news, and you won't have American election or Afghanistan news all day long.

To my surprise, they had a special on how the Indonesian ex-Chinese are doing after Suharto's death. These ex-Chinese have been through a terrible life under Suharto's anti-Chinese policy. They are a bit confused. They consider themselves as Indonesian, but why is that they have to be treated differently just because they have a Chinese strain. Some are proud of being both Indonesian and Chinese.

There were some interviews in the program, so I can hear the voices directly from those Indonesian ex-Chinese. That's quite a contact.

My point here is not to discuss the Indonesian ex-Chinese problem, but the media from German that is so different from the U.S. or British ones. We all have been for too long a time reading, watching, and listening to the U.S. media, and unintentionally getting an American view. It's a situation that I thought I can do nothing about it. For if we want to keep receiving world views, we have to receive them in English, which automatically conveys an American view. I am not saying that the American view is bad, actually it is quite good, and I have been enjoying it very much. But we just want to have some other voices to listen to.

I am glad that Deutsche Welle does it in English. From now on, I have BBC, ICRT, and DW to choose.

Whatever Will Be, Will Be

It is Chinese New Year now, and suddenly, it came up on my mind that I'd better write my Blog in English from now on, at least, once in a while.

I am forty eight years old. It is a long way for me to have a computer and start exploiting the cyberspace, and, perhaps, typing as well. But that is not the most difficult part. I find writing something that is in a flash quite challenging, especially in English.

This Blog has been written in Chinese to record my life. Somehow, I think it is time for me to write in English to share with the world. You will never know how hard it is.

I was an executive of a local securities firm and futures trading company. One day, I found I'd better start my own investment business, and I did. Currently, I am an investment free lancer, to invest for my own good. I believe that value investment is what I do, I am serious.

As an value investor, I am doing fine and have a lot of time hanging around. Usually, people think I am unemployed, or I may not have so plenty of time doing nothing. But they have no idea that I am making money, perhaps more than they are doing. And that is quite strange a feeling. I am far from super rich, but enough for a humble life.

However, while doing nothing all day is my goal, it is quite boring just sit there. So I have a lot of hobbies, such as Chinese Painting, music, orchid growing, and Go, and I also translate English to Chinese for a local publisher. Among my works are The Walmart Effect by Charles Fishman and The Age of Turbulence by Alan Greenspan.

You should see how the publisher react to me at the very first time we encounter. Anyway, translation is fun and free for me but certainly not a good business to make a living. All translators in Taiwan know that. But it is something that you would spend a lot of time to do. It is so worthwhile to have a good book in hand to translate.

That's all I have to say for now, and, I hope you like it.

泰北行簡

原先以為泰北是偏僻之處，理當頹圮凋敝，再加上有著《異域》的印象，總是認為泰北應該是個蠻荒之地才對。但真正到了泰北，走出清邁機場，立即完全改觀，這裡富饒美麗宛如人間仙境。

清邁是個古城，有許多古剎，各個寺廟都只能用精緻美麗莊嚴來形容。導遊介紹了許多古寺的由來典故，但我已記不清楚，倒是拍了不少照片。

泰國人好客溫和，再加上物價便宜，悠遊其間，讓人感到心曠神怡。不過這裡幾乎凡事都要小費，還好是二十泰銖，我覺得尚能接受。

泰北行一般是遊古寺、看長頸族、到金三角、泰緬邊境、美斯樂，以及蘭園（我的最愛）、猴園、大象學校等。其中看長頸族一事最讓我感到不安，大家拿著相機對著長頸族少女拍攝，好像在拍動物一樣，我實在不忍拍，因此沒拍下來。

泰緬邊境是最刺激的了，各色人種混雜，充滿了生命力，但也明顯對比出泰國的富庶和緬甸的窮困。緬甸街頭上還有不少持槍軍人，尚存一股肅殺之氣。

但清邁還是最美的，沒有高樓大廈，多是精緻美屋，城裡有個洋人街，裡頭的咖啡館從Starbucks到當地的特色咖啡屋，間間暴滿，多是年輕人，還有不少像業務的人在裡頭用notebook和客人交談。

當然，清邁的高爾夫球場也很棒，不過此行沒有安排打球行程，也許將來有機會在去那裡揮桿。

泰北非常進步，非常美，值得一遊。







長頸族我只在遠遠拍街景。


這三尊緬甸的佛像其實是同一尊，非常特別，緬甸人運用特殊雕刻技巧，讓你從各個方向看佛像都覺得佛也在看著你。




緬甸一角，像不像早年的眷村？

1/10-1/15出國旅遊

原本要去澳洲當澳客的，無奈旅行社通知取消我所報的團，緊急改為泰北，無魚蝦也好。

有什麼事回來再說了。

四季蘭無菌播種後續２－－長龍根

長龍根了，播種至今已半年。培養基已乾燥，因為我只用鋁箔紙包住瓶口，而且播種當時沒有添加無菌水，幾個月下來，瓶子裡的水分已蒸發殆盡，許多瓶都完了。只剩下二、三瓶還沒乾死。

下次播種我得另外再多加一些無菌水才是。

四季蘭無菌播種ＤＩＹ

四季蘭無菌播種後續１

四季蘭無菌播種後續２－－長龍根

四季蘭無菌播種後續３

四季蘭無菌播種後續４

高雄半日遊

十二月三十一日早上突然心血來潮，與太太搭高鐵到高雄玩。由於是臨時起義，所以很晚才出門，幸好一路很順，中午十二點半準時抵達左營。

我二十年前曾經在左營服役，因此還略有印象，我們先逛蓮池潭，不料蓮池潭正在整治，整個都封了起來，於是只好先到孔廟。二十年前，左營孔廟裡設了圖書室供民眾閱讀，我放假日常在那裡看書，如今已改為餐廳。但餐廳裡的簡餐一客要三百多元，我發現中午時根本就沒人在那裡用餐，殊為可惜。

後來我們到左營北站搭205號公車到美術館。到了之後才知道，高雄美術館原來是一大座美麗的親水公園，不輸宜蘭的羅東公園。我們順便看了一下附近的房子，都是美麗的建築，真不敢相信，一坪只要十二、三萬。這相當於泰山或三峽的價錢。差點衝動要下訂了。還好，終於忍了下來。

其實高雄美術館附近讓我想到台北的大直，但價位有如天壤之別，我要不是親眼見到，還真不敢相信。我想，這大概就是冪法則或Pareto's Law發揮作用吧。

財富會自然集中，連房地產的價格也有同樣現象。